Alfredo Avila v Nyron Joseph (Tue 24 Jul 2018)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-1,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
31,618, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Nyron Joseph:
11,601, level confidence: 13%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
173% better than Nyron Joseph.
Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
230% better than Nyron Joseph in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of
34,791 and Nyron Joseph at a level of
10,543. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +1.3% and Nyron Joseph changes to -6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +0.5% and for Nyron Joseph becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 76%, Nyron Joseph: 35%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 69%, Nyron Joseph: 32%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
31,781, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Nyron Joseph:
11,355, level confidence: 32%.