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Alfredo Avila v Andres Herrera (Thu 26 Jul 2018)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 31,820, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Andres Herrera: 11,893, level confidence: 42%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Andres Herrera.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 154% better than Andres Herrera in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alfredo Avila was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,997 and 31,820 without affecting his level.

In this case, Alfredo Avila played at level 30,190 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Andres Herrera is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 71%, Andres Herrera: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 69%, Andres Herrera: 63%.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 31,820, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Andres Herrera: 11,893, level confidence: 63%.