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Jack Martell v Scott Handley (Wed 01 Aug 2018)

Match won by Jack Martell. Result: 11-2,6-11,5-11,11-5,11-0.

Starting level for Jack Martell: 10,288, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,952, level confidence: 62%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Jack Martell.

Jack Martell won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Martell played 20% better than Scott Handley in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Martell actually played at a level of 13,611 and Scott Handley at a level of 11,302. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Martell changes to +19% and Scott Handley changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Martell becomes +5.3% and for Scott Handley becomes -6.2%.

Given Jack Martell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Jack Martell is +2.5% and for Scott Handley is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Martell: 92%, Scott Handley: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Martell: 69%, Scott Handley: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Martell: 10,573, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,642, level confidence: 60%.