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Charlie Lee v Tom May (Fri 03 Aug 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 27,596, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Tom May: 7,726, level confidence: 59%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 257% better than Tom May.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 267% better than Tom May in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 27,960 and Tom May at a level of 7,625. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +0.7% and Tom May changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +0.3% and for Tom May becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 67%, Tom May: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 67%, Tom May: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 27,633, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Tom May: 7,693, level confidence: 76%.