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Lyell Fuller v Ed Miles (Fri 03 Aug 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,148, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Ed Miles: 5,025, level confidence: 70%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 400% better than Ed Miles.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 175% better than Ed Miles in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 42%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,375 and 25,148 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 14,162 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 14,513 (based on typical behaviour), Ed Miles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and Ed Miles changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for Ed Miles becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 79%, Ed Miles: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 58%, Ed Miles: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 25,110, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Ed Miles: 5,046, level confidence: 62%.