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Charlie Lee v Richie Fallows (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 10-12,12-10,11-5,9-11,11-5.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 28,190, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 29,846, level confidence: 45%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Charlie Lee.

Charlie Lee won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 13% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 30,877 and Richie Fallows at a level of 27,249. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +8% and Richie Fallows changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +2.2% and for Richie Fallows becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 72%, Richie Fallows: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 66%, Richie Fallows: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 28,778, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 29,193, level confidence: 61%.