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Steve London v Lyell Fuller (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 7-11,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Steve London: 9,842, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,137, level confidence: 50%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 145% better than Steve London.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 120% better than Steve London in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,201 and 24,137 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 21,652 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Steve London is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 71%, Steve London: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 67%, Steve London: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve London: 9,827, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,101, level confidence: 67%.