Wael El Hindi v Ben Garner (Wed 01 Aug 2018)
Match won by Wael El Hindi. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Wael El Hindi:
19,274, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Ben Garner:
13,238, level confidence: 27%.
Wael El Hindi to win as he is currently playing
46% better than Ben Garner.
Wael El Hindi won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wael El Hindi played
106% better than Ben Garner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wael El Hindi actually played at a level of
22,940 and Ben Garner at a level of
11,122. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wael El Hindi changes to +9% and Ben Garner changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wael El Hindi becomes +2.6% and for Ben Garner becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Masters' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wael El Hindi: 69%, Ben Garner: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wael El Hindi: 58%, Ben Garner: 44%.
Final level for Wael El Hindi:
19,769, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Ben Garner:
12,704, level confidence: 44%.