Charlie Lee v William Henden (Thu 02 Aug 2018)
Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-3.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
27,525, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
William Henden:
4,133, level confidence: 55%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
566% better than William Henden.
Charlie Lee won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played
200% better than William Henden in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 50%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,889 and 27,525 without affecting his level.
In this case, Charlie Lee played at level 13,066 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlie Lee would normally have been playing at level 13,770 (based on typical behaviour), William Henden played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to 0% and William Henden changes to +1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes 0% and for William Henden becomes +1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Thanet Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 68%, William Henden: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 46%, William Henden: 50%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
27,539, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for William Henden:
4,179, level confidence: 50%.