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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Yash Bhargava (Mon 06 Aug 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 32,238, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Yash Bhargava: 10,458, level confidence: 49%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 208% better than Yash Bhargava.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 106% better than Yash Bhargava in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,983 and 32,238 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mahesh Mangaonkar played at level 22,789 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 24,078 (based on typical behaviour), Yash Bhargava played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to 0% and Yash Bhargava changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes 0% and for Yash Bhargava becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Maharashtra State Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 81%, Yash Bhargava: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 66%, Yash Bhargava: 57%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 32,238, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Yash Bhargava: 10,617, level confidence: 57%.