Mahesh Mangaonkar v Yash Fadte (Wed 08 Aug 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-2.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
32,231, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Yash Fadte:
13,806, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
133% better than Yash Fadte.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
200% better than Yash Fadte in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
36,537 and Yash Fadte at a level of
12,179. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 8.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +8.6% and Yash Fadte changes to -7.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +2.3% and for Yash Fadte becomes -2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '43rd Maharashtra State Senior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 89%, Yash Fadte: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 79%, Yash Fadte: 84%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
32,956, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Yash Fadte:
13,482, level confidence: 84%.