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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Abhishek Pradhan (Thu 09 Aug 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-8,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 32,789, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abhishek Pradhan: 15,992, level confidence: 64%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Abhishek Pradhan.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 35% better than Abhishek Pradhan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,790 and 32,789 without affecting his level.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 23,126, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 28,510 (based on typical behaviour), Abhishek Pradhan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -4% and Abhishek Pradhan changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.4% and for Abhishek Pradhan becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '43rd Maharashtra State Senior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 89%, Abhishek Pradhan: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 72%, Abhishek Pradhan: 65%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 32,336, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Abhishek Pradhan: 16,459, level confidence: 65%.