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Diego Gobbi v Julian Tomlinson (Sat 11 Aug 2018)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-5,11-5,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 15,731, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,070, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Diego Gobbi won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 30% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of 17,523 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 13,529. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +11% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +3.1% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Mote Adult Graded 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 77%, Julian Tomlinson: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 69%, Julian Tomlinson: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 16,222, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 14,699, level confidence: 80%.