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Ludovica Cipolletta v Julian Tomlinson (Sat 18 Aug 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 4-11,5-11,3-11.

Starting level for Ludovica Cipolletta: 9,355, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 14,803, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Ludovica Cipolletta.

Julian Tomlinson won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 175% better than Ludovica Cipolletta in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Tomlinson actually played at a level of 19,515 and Ludovica Cipolletta at a level of 7,096. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to +14% and Ludovica Cipolletta changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes +3.7% and for Ludovica Cipolletta becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ken Cotton Memorial 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 88%, Ludovica Cipolletta: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 67%, Ludovica Cipolletta: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ludovica Cipolletta: 8,780, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,350, level confidence: 67%.