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Ben Ford v Julian Tomlinson (Sat 18 Aug 2018)

Match won by Ben Ford. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Ben Ford: 14,279, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,350, level confidence: 67%.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Ben Ford.

Ben Ford won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Ford played 42% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Ford actually played at a level of 17,659 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 12,412. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Ford changes to +22% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Ford becomes +5.5% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ken Cotton Memorial 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Julian Tomlinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Ford: 83%, Julian Tomlinson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Ford: 67%, Julian Tomlinson: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Ford: 15,059, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 14,619, level confidence: 66%.