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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Ka Hoe Pang (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-1.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 32,531, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ka Hoe Pang: 12,564, level confidence: 67%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 159% better than Ka Hoe Pang.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 371% better than Ka Hoe Pang in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 43,896 and Ka Hoe Pang at a level of 9,311. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +20% and Ka Hoe Pang changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +4.4% and for Ka Hoe Pang becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%, Ka Hoe Pang: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 61%, Ka Hoe Pang: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,905, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ka Hoe Pang: 11,948, level confidence: 60%.