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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Abdulrahman Al-Malki (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,772, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 6,457, level confidence: 68%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 423% better than Abdulrahman Al-Malki.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 94% better than Abdulrahman Al-Malki in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,762 and 33,772 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mahesh Mangaonkar played at level 15,458 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 19,064 (based on typical behaviour), Abdulrahman Al-Malki played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to 0% and Abdulrahman Al-Malki changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes 0% and for Abdulrahman Al-Malki becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 78%, Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 47%, Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,721, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 6,649, level confidence: 50%.