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Leo Au v Ryunosuke Tsukue (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 12-10,5-11,11-6,0-11,11-8.

Starting level for Leo Au: 41,956, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 24,743, level confidence: 68%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 4% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue in this match.

As Leo Au has played below his allowed range at 30,320, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 38,772 (based on typical behaviour), Ryunosuke Tsukue played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to -13% and Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes -3% and for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 84%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 66%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 41,341, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 25,745, level confidence: 64%.