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Leo Au v Amrit Magar (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Leo Au: 41,229, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Amrit Magar: 3,870, level confidence: 51%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 965% better than Amrit Magar.

Leo Au won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 120% better than Amrit Magar in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leo Au was taking it easy by anything up to 60%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,450 and 41,229 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leo Au played at level 11,783 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 16,307 (based on typical behaviour), Amrit Magar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 38%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to 0% and Amrit Magar changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes 0% and for Amrit Magar becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 86%, Amrit Magar: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 39%, Amrit Magar: 32%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 41,167, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Amrit Magar: 4,025, level confidence: 32%.