Patrick Rooney v Julian Tomlinson (Fri 31 Aug 2018)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,12-10,5-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,265, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
15,054, level confidence: 66%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
81% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
25% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 20,560, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 24,722 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 10.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -6.6% and Julian Tomlinson changes to +9.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -2% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes +2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Julian Tomlinson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 64%, Julian Tomlinson: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
26,807, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
15,518, level confidence: 68%.