Andy Whipp v Charlie Cowie (Fri 31 Aug 2018)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-6,11-6,12-10.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
16,826, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Charlie Cowie:
13,782, level confidence: 43%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Charlie Cowie.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
55% better than Charlie Cowie in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
18,940 and Charlie Cowie at a level of
12,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +10.5% and Charlie Cowie changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +2.9% and for Charlie Cowie becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 68%, Charlie Cowie: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 61%, Charlie Cowie: 58%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
17,365, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Charlie Cowie:
13,379, level confidence: 58%.