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Nick Wall v Andy Whipp (Sat 01 Sep 2018)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 18,299, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 17,378, level confidence: 60%.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Andy Whipp.

Nick Wall won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 106% better than Andy Whipp in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Wall actually played at a level of 25,610 and Andy Whipp at a level of 12,417. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to +31% and Andy Whipp changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes +6.8% and for Andy Whipp becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Whipp is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 87%, Andy Whipp: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 62%, Andy Whipp: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 19,567, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 16,592, level confidence: 56%.