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Patrick Rooney v Nick Wall (Sun 02 Sep 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-9,7-11,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,663, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 19,551, level confidence: 62%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Nick Wall.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 29% better than Nick Wall in this match.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 25,562 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 25,854 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Wall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Nick Wall changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Nick Wall becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 80%, Nick Wall: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 78%, Nick Wall: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,730, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 19,683, level confidence: 77%.