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Mohamed Abouelghar v Gregory Gaultier (Fri 07 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 12-10,7-11,11-4,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 45,582, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 68,221, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 9% better than Gregory Gaultier in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 58,274 and Gregory Gaultier at a level of 53,362. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +22% and Gregory Gaultier changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +4.4% and for Gregory Gaultier becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 75%, Gregory Gaultier: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 59%, Gregory Gaultier: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 47,503, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 65,947, level confidence: 66%.