James Willstrop v Zahed Mohamed (Sat 08 Sep 2018)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-6,11-13,9-11,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
40,665, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
36,011, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Zahed Mohamed.
James Willstrop won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
13% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
40,589 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of
36,079. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to 0% and Zahed Mohamed changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.1% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 81%, Zahed Mohamed: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 81%, Zahed Mohamed: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
40,501, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
36,094, level confidence: 89%.