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Declan James v Baptiste Masotti (Sat 08 Sep 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Declan James: 37,233, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 29,080, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Declan James won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 106% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 47,256 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 22,912. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +23% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +4.8% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 77%, Baptiste Masotti: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 61%, Baptiste Masotti: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 38,677, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 28,482, level confidence: 70%.