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Karl Young v Russell Baker (Mon 10 Sep 2018)

Match won by Karl Young. Result: 15-8,13-15,17-15,15-7.

Starting level for Karl Young: 1,452, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Russell Baker: 1,622, level confidence: 37%.
Russell Baker to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Karl Young.

Karl Young won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Young played 28% better than Russell Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karl Young actually played at a level of 1,735 and Russell Baker at a level of 1,358. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Young changes to +18% and Russell Baker changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Young becomes +8.9% and for Russell Baker becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Karl Young is +6.7% and for Russell Baker is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Young: 55%, Russell Baker: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Young: 46%, Russell Baker: 51%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Young: 1,546, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Russell Baker: 1,578, level confidence: 51%.