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Peter Creed v Isaac Rawcliffe (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,248, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 10,814, level confidence: 39%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 152% better than Isaac Rawcliffe.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 154% better than Isaac Rawcliffe in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 27,349 and Isaac Rawcliffe at a level of 10,774. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Isaac Rawcliffe changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +0.1% and for Isaac Rawcliffe becomes 0%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.

Given Isaac Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is 0% and for Isaac Rawcliffe is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 73%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 72%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,217, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 10,790, level confidence: 62%.