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James Peach v Lewis Poole (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for James Peach: 13,476, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Lewis Poole: 9,157, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Lewis Poole.

James Peach won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 136% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 17,055 and Lewis Poole at a level of 7,235. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +21% and Lewis Poole changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +5.4% and for Lewis Poole becomes -3.1%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Poole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is +3.2% and for Lewis Poole is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 63%, Lewis Poole: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 50%, Lewis Poole: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Peach: 13,888, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Lewis Poole: 8,962, level confidence: 72%.