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Leo Au v Ivan Yuen (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 5-11,1-11,11-9,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Leo Au: 38,790, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 32,487, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Ivan Yuen.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 4% better than Ivan Yuen in this match.

As Leo Au has played below his allowed range at 35,883, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 38,418 (based on typical behaviour), Ivan Yuen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to -5.5% and Ivan Yuen changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes -1.6% and for Ivan Yuen becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 67%, Ivan Yuen: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 63%, Ivan Yuen: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 38,146, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen: 32,936, level confidence: 78%.