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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,579, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,272, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 106% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,287 and 33,579 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mahesh Mangaonkar played at level 33,561 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Stuart Macgregor is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 67%, Stuart Macgregor: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 67%, Stuart Macgregor: 95%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,579, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,272, level confidence: 95%.