SquashLevels calculations
Mahesh Mangaonkar v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 13 Sep 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,560, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
16,273, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
106% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
106% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to 0% and Stuart Macgregor changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 67%, Stuart Macgregor: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 67%, Stuart Macgregor: 95%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,560, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
16,273, level confidence: 95%.