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Leo Au v Tayyab Aslam (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Leo Au: 38,529, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 25,648, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Tayyab Aslam.

Leo Au won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 106% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 45,146 and Tayyab Aslam at a level of 21,889. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +14% and Tayyab Aslam changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +3.1% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 85%, Tayyab Aslam: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 72%, Tayyab Aslam: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 39,466, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 25,096, level confidence: 78%.