Mahesh Mangaonkar v Martin Svec (Fri 14 Sep 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 9-11,11-2,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,720, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Martin Svec:
18,578, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
82% better than Martin Svec.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
35% better than Martin Svec in this match.
As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 26,360, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 30,555 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Svec played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 7.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -3.7% and Martin Svec changes to +6.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.3% and for Martin Svec becomes +2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Remeo Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%, Martin Svec: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 71%, Martin Svec: 74%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,277, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Martin Svec:
18,978, level confidence: 74%.