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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Sat 15 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,126, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 30,989, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 74% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 42,225 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 24,311. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +26% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +5.4% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Remeo Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 84%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 66%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,692, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 29,611, level confidence: 66%.