Mahesh Mangaonkar v Olli Tuominen (Sun 16 Sep 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,13-15,14-12,11-9.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
34,958, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Olli Tuominen:
30,112, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Olli Tuominen.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
22% better than Olli Tuominen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
35,873 and Olli Tuominen at a level of
29,344. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +2.4% and Olli Tuominen changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +0.9% and for Olli Tuominen becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Remeo Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 81%, Olli Tuominen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 79%, Olli Tuominen: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
35,151, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Olli Tuominen:
30,023, level confidence: 88%.