Lyell Fuller v Jean Pierre Brits (Tue 18 Sep 2018)
Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
23,410, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Jean Pierre Brits:
18,746, level confidence: 58%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Jean Pierre Brits.
Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played
47% better than Jean Pierre Brits in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of
25,423 and Jean Pierre Brits at a level of
17,262. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +7.7% and Jean Pierre Brits changes to -6.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +2.2% and for Jean Pierre Brits becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 69%, Jean Pierre Brits: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 63%, Jean Pierre Brits: 70%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
23,926, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Jean Pierre Brits:
18,380, level confidence: 70%.