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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Sajad Zareian (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 5-11,11-1,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,977, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sajad Zareian: 15,018, level confidence: 69%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Sajad Zareian.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 81% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 43% better than Sajad Zareian in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,350 and 34,977 without affecting his level.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 22,905, his level reduction is 6.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 29,184 (based on typical behaviour), Sajad Zareian played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -3.6% and Sajad Zareian changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.3% and for Sajad Zareian becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 88%, Sajad Zareian: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 69%, Sajad Zareian: 65%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,526, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Sajad Zareian: 15,470, level confidence: 65%.