SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Cláudio Pinto v Patrick Rooney (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Cláudio Pinto. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Cláudio Pinto: 17,436, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 27,601, level confidence: 59%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Cláudio Pinto.

Cláudio Pinto won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cláudio Pinto played 20% better than Patrick Rooney in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cláudio Pinto actually played at a level of 24,063 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 20,000. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cláudio Pinto changes to +24% and Patrick Rooney changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cláudio Pinto becomes +5.6% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Rooney is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cláudio Pinto: 85%, Patrick Rooney: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cláudio Pinto: 61%, Patrick Rooney: 56%.

Final level for Cláudio Pinto: 18,412, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,287, level confidence: 56%.