Cláudio Pinto v Patrick Rooney (Thu 20 Sep 2018)
Match won by Cláudio Pinto. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-7,12-10.
Starting level for
Cláudio Pinto:
17,436, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,601, level confidence: 59%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Cláudio Pinto.
Cláudio Pinto won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cláudio Pinto played
20% better than Patrick Rooney in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cláudio Pinto actually played at a level of
24,063 and Patrick Rooney at a level of
20,000. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cláudio Pinto changes to +24% and Patrick Rooney changes to -29%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cláudio Pinto becomes +5.6% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Rooney is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cláudio Pinto: 85%, Patrick Rooney: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cláudio Pinto: 61%, Patrick Rooney: 56%.
Final level for Cláudio Pinto:
18,412, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
26,287, level confidence: 56%.