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Tsz Fung Yip v Peter Creed (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-1.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,655, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,605, level confidence: 67%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Peter Creed.

Tsz Fung Yip won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 175% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Fung Yip actually played at a level of 55,143 and Peter Creed at a level of 20,052. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to +34% and Peter Creed changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +6.4% and for Peter Creed becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tsz Fung Yip is limited to +5.3% and Peter Creed is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 85%, Peter Creed: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 59%, Peter Creed: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,694, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,250, level confidence: 58%.