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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Rui Soares (Fri 21 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,631, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rui Soares: 22,431, level confidence: 66%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Rui Soares.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 38% better than Rui Soares in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 30,965, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 32,752 (based on typical behaviour), Rui Soares played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to 0% and Rui Soares changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -0% and for Rui Soares becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 83%, Rui Soares: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 78%, Rui Soares: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,410, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Rui Soares: 22,764, level confidence: 77%.