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Todd Harrity v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-6,3-11,11-7,3-11,11-8.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 32,263, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,410, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Todd Harrity.

Todd Harrity won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 5% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 34,170 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 32,489. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +4.9% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +1.6% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 96%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 90%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,746, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 33,852, level confidence: 83%.