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Max Lee v Leo Au (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Max Lee: 40,448, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 40,343, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Leo Au.

Max Lee won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 120% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of 59,916 and Leo Au at a level of 27,235. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +48% and Leo Au changes to -37%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +8.4% and for Leo Au becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Max Lee is limited to +5.3% and Leo Au is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 85%, Leo Au: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 57%, Leo Au: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 42,611, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Leo Au: 38,457, level confidence: 63%.