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Andy Whipp v Chris Morrison (Tue 25 Sep 2018)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Andy Whipp: 16,715, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Chris Morrison: 7,744, level confidence: 49%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Chris Morrison.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 267% better than Chris Morrison in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of 21,786 and Chris Morrison at a level of 5,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +19% and Chris Morrison changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +4.7% and for Chris Morrison becomes -5.7%.

Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Morrison's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is +2.7% and for Chris Morrison is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 71%, Chris Morrison: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 54%, Chris Morrison: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Whipp: 17,203, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Chris Morrison: 7,477, level confidence: 54%.