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Julian Tomlinson v Lewis Walters (Tue 25 Sep 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-7,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,518, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Lewis Walters: 18,035, level confidence: 43%.
Lewis Walters to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Julian Tomlinson won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 14% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Tomlinson actually played at a level of 17,830 and Lewis Walters at a level of 15,696. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to +9.7% and Lewis Walters changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes +2.8% and for Lewis Walters becomes -3.6%.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is +1.6% and for Lewis Walters is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 78%, Lewis Walters: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 68%, Lewis Walters: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,809, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Lewis Walters: 17,733, level confidence: 57%.