SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mark Chapman v Mike Harris (Tue 25 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 5-11,12-14,11-9,2-11.

Starting level for Mark Chapman: 7,942, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,370, level confidence: 59%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Mark Chapman.

Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 33% better than Mark Chapman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,425 and 19,370 without affecting his level.

As Mike Harris has played below his allowed range at 11,467, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 15,901 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Chapman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to -4.3% and Mark Chapman changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -1.6% and for Mark Chapman becomes +4.3%.

Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Mark Chapman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Devon Mixed League 2018' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is -0.9% and for Mark Chapman is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 77%, Mark Chapman: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 57%, Mark Chapman: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Chapman: 8,161, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 19,176, level confidence: 57%.