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Peter Creed v Emyr Evans (Thu 27 Sep 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-8,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,233, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,644, level confidence: 70%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Emyr Evans.

Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 22% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 27,982 and Emyr Evans at a level of 23,011. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +2.5% and Emyr Evans changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +1% and for Emyr Evans becomes -1.1%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is +0.5% and for Emyr Evans is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 85%, Emyr Evans: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 83%, Emyr Evans: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,327, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,480, level confidence: 81%.