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Doug Chandler v Steve Besant (Thu 27 Sep 2018)

Match won by Doug Chandler. Result: 11-8,4-11,12-14,12-10,11-2.

Starting level for Doug Chandler: 1,872, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Besant: 1,502, level confidence: 56%.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Steve Besant.

Doug Chandler won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Chandler played 10% better than Steve Besant in this match.

As Doug Chandler has played below his allowed range at 1,730, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Doug Chandler would normally have been playing at level 1,842 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Besant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Chandler changes to -2.9% and Steve Besant changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Chandler becomes -2.3% and for Steve Besant becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Doug Chandler is -1.7% and for Steve Besant is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Chandler: 86%, Steve Besant: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Chandler: 81%, Steve Besant: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Chandler: 1,838, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Steve Besant: 1,537, level confidence: 70%.