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Russell Baker v Trevor Leahy (Thu 27 Sep 2018)

Match won by Russell Baker. Result: 15-9,15-12,15-10.

Starting level for Russell Baker: 1,584, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Trevor Leahy: 1,476, level confidence: 68%.
Russell Baker to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Trevor Leahy.

Russell Baker won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Russell Baker played 48% better than Trevor Leahy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Russell Baker actually played at a level of 1,863 and Trevor Leahy at a level of 1,255. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Russell Baker changes to +17% and Trevor Leahy changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Russell Baker becomes +8.1% and for Trevor Leahy becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Russell Baker is +6% and for Trevor Leahy is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Russell Baker: 69%, Trevor Leahy: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Russell Baker: 58%, Trevor Leahy: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Russell Baker: 1,677, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Trevor Leahy: 1,411, level confidence: 70%.