Lewis Doughty v Patrick Rooney (Tue 02 Oct 2018)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 4-11,6-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Lewis Doughty:
10,459, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,296, level confidence: 56%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
161% better than Lewis Doughty.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
175% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
28,020 and Lewis Doughty at a level of
10,189. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +1.6% and Lewis Doughty changes to -1.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.7% and for Lewis Doughty becomes -0.6%.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.
Given Lewis Doughty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is +0.3% and for Lewis Doughty is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 75%, Lewis Doughty: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 73%, Lewis Doughty: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lewis Doughty:
10,445, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
27,455, level confidence: 73%.